Apr 09 2009
Fantasy: How valuable are Brewers players?
If you’re as excited about the fantasy baseball season as I am, then you’ve no doubt studied players from your favorite team to see if they could help you this year.
The Milwaukee Brewers have several very valuable players in the fantasy world. Let’s take a look at who is valuable and why.
Rickie Weeks, 2b
Weeks has always tantalized fantasy owners, providing much potential, but little in the way of production. Baseball “experts” have tabbed him as a breakout player in seasons past, and this season is no different. Many of these people are saying 2009 will be Rickie’s breakout year. He posted solid numbers in spring training, but take those numbers with a grain of salt, as the Arizona air is very conducive to hitting.
So where does Rickie help your team? He certainly has some pop and speed. He’s averaged 21 stolen bases over the past 3 seasons, and should be expected to be around that number again this year. He has 12-20 HR potential, giving him more power upside than a lot of other 2b.He should score quite a few runs at the top of the powerful Brewers lineup.
Where he doesn’t help is average, as Rickie is a career .245 hitter. He also won’t give you a bunch of RBIs, as the leadoff spot in a National League lineup is a tough spot to collect them.
So how valuable is he? Rickie isn’t a top-tier 2b along the lines of Chase Utley, Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia and Co., but is certainly worth a mid to late round flier. Maybe he can actually produce up to his potential this season.
Prince Fielder, 1b
Prince hit 50 HR a couple seasons ago, leading many people to think he’d come close to that number again in 2008. That wasn’t the case, as he only hit 34, but he had over 100 RBI for the second consecutive year.
So what can we expect this season? I would say he should come close to 40 HR again, if not a little more. He’ll be 25 next month, so his biggest power numbers may be yet to come. He’s a near lock to collect 100 RBI again, especially with Ryan Braun hitting in front of him. Weeks and whoever is batting 2nd for the Brewers (could be a Corey Hart, JJ Hardy, and Mike Cameron carousel) will be very important to Prince’s RBI opportunities. He’s a career .278 hitter with an OPS a shade over .900, so he’s very valuable. He’s had at least 80 runs every year since becoming an everyday player, and he could increase that number with the powerful JJ Hardy and Mike Cameron batting behind him.
Prince won’t help you in the SB department, but usually you wouldn’t draft a 1b for that capability.
Prince is a top 10 fantasy 1b, but isn’t quite up to the level of an Albert Pujols or Mark Teixeira. Prince is about as durable as they come, so draft confidently.
JJ Hardy, SS
Hardy has hit 50 HR over the past 2 seasons, and has increased his average (AVG), on-base %(OBP), and slugging %(SLG) for 3 consecutive seasons, which definitely bodes well going into 2009.
Hardy will likely hit 25+ HR again this season, and is a great bet to yet again increase his AVG, OBP, and SLG. He’ll be 27 later this season, just entering the prime of his career.
Hardy won’t help much in the SB area (only 5 career thefts) or AVG (career .268).
Hardy should be a top 10 fantasy SS this season, with the potential to be in the top 7 or so. The lack of SB and high average hold him back from being an elite player, but with SS being a scarce position, he’s definitely worth a early-to-mid round pick.
Bill Hall, 3b
Hall has been moved from position to position over the past few seasons, and his production has likely suffered as a result. His 2006 season was an incredible one, with 35 HR and .553 SLG, but really hasn’t come close to that in the past 2 years.
Hall is firmly entrenched as the everyday 3b, but may sit against some of the tougher right handed pitchers in the NL. He still has a ton of power, but has only hit 29 HR in the past 2 seasons.
Hall strikes out a lot and doesn’t have great plate discipline, so he’s likely to have a mediocre average in 09. Something around .255-.270 is a solid estimate. He won’t steal many bases or drive in a bunch of runs.
In a standard league, Hall is certainly not in the top couple tiers of 3b, and should be a late round pick, or in some cases, not drafted at all. If you can get a 3b with more upside in the later rounds like Alex Gordon or Pablo Sandoval, go that route.
Jason Kendall, C
Kendall is one of those players that has much more value in real life than in fantasy. He won’t offer any power, SB, RBI, or runs, making him a pretty uninspiring pick. Leave him undrafted. If you don’t have a catcher in the later rounds, go for a guy like Matt Wieters, who will be Baltimore’s starting catcher sometime in May, or guys like Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Brian Schneider.
Ryan Braun, LF/OF
Braun is considered by many to be the top fantasy outfielder available. His combination of power and speed makes him a very early round pick.
Braun has hit .303 in both of his pro seasons, but his 2008 average of .285 is probably closer to what he’ll hit in 2009 rather than his .324 average in 07. He strikes out a lot, affecting his average. Braun should hit close to 40 HR this year, if not more. 100 RBI should be obtainable for sure. He’ll also steal 15+ bases, even batting in front of Fielder.
There’s really no weakness in Braun’s fantasy game. He should go in the first or second round of a standard league draft.
Mike Cameron, CF/OF
One look in person of what Cameron offers may lead some people to believe that he’s not real valuable. He strikes out a bunch. He doesn’t hit for a high average. What he does do is hit 20+ HR every season and steal at least 15 bases every season, making him pretty valuable, especially for a CF.
He’s a top 60 OF, certainly making him worth a later round flier.
Corey Hart, RF/OF
Hart is a true 5 tool player. He’s had 20 HR and 20 SB in the last 2 seasons, and many feel he’s capable of a couple 30-30 seasons. He really struggled in the AVG department last year (.268), but should improve in 09.
His potential makes him a top 25 OF. He could have a tremendous year if he sticks in the 2nd spot of the lineup all season long.
Yovani Gallardo, SP
The Brewers have one dominating pitcher in Gallardo. Just 23, he already has the makings of a Cy Young candidate.
He’s a top 20 pitcher in a standard league, as he should strike out quite a few batters to go along with a good WHIP (Walks + Hits/Innings Pitched) and ERA. He should have plenty of opportunities to win as the Brewers have a potent lineup.
Last year’s knee injury was a freak accident, so don’t let it deter you for fantasy purposes.
Trevor Hoffman, RP
Hoffman is currently on the Disabled List with an oblique problem, but should return later this month. He’ll be locked into the closer role when he returns with plenty of save opportunities.
Moving from the spacious Petco Park in San Diego to Miller Park in Milwaukee will probably hurt him a little bit, as he’s a fly ball pitcher. He’s just an average closer at this point in his career, and should be drafted in the later rounds.
Manny Parra, SP
Parra had an inconsistent rookie season in 2008. He showed plenty of potential, but struggled with stamina and control.
With another year under his belt, Parra should really show some progress in 09. He has the stuff to strike batters out (147K in 166IP in 08). The key for him is limiting walks and pitching deeper into games.
Parra has considerable upside, making him a solid pick in the later rounds. He could win 12+ games with a low-4.00 ERA with plenty of Ks.
That highlights the main fantasy impact players for the Brewers. Here are some less intriguing options:
Dave Bush, SP - Bush is a decent player to spot start. He’ll give you a good ERA and WHIP, but will struggle against HR-hitting teams and ballparks conducive to hitting.
Braden Looper, SP - Looper is also a spot starter. He won’t blow anyone away, but could have some success on your fantasy teams if used correctly.
Carlos Villanueva, RP - Villanueva excelled in a relief role last season after starting the season as a starter. He should rack up quite a few innings this season in some high-leverage innings. If your league has holds as a stat category or lots of relief spots, CV could be worth a look.
Seth McClung, RP/SP - McClung has a nice 2008, alternating between starter and reliever. He is an important part of the Brewers 2009 bullpen, and has a role similar to CV.
Jeff Suppan, SP - Avoid at all costs. Doesn’t fool anyone, and gives up too many HR. Not a fantasy option.
Any bench players - All the Brewers regulars should get as many games as they could handle in 2009, making bench options like Craig Counsell, Brad Nelson, Chris Duffy, and Casey McGehee poor fantasy options. Unless you’re in a really deep NL-Only league, avoid these players.
So there you have it. The Brewers have one of the more fantasy-friendly teams around (certainly their hitters), and you should be confident that all their hitters will stay healthy and have major roles all season long.
